Archives: Insight

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, May 19, 2025

U.S.-China Tariff Deal Eases Market Tensions:

Stocks surged last week, fueled by optimism over positive trade developments and an encouraging inflation report.
The S&P 500 Index rose 5.27% while the Nasdaq Composite Index spiked 7.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.41%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 0.80 percent.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 5/9/25 = 0)

S&P, Dow Erase YTD Losses

Stocks pushed higher on Monday as investors cheered weekend news that the U.S. and China temporarily agreed to back off steep reciprocal tariffs.3
Then, a mild inflation report for April—the slowest annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading in four years—boosted markets on Tuesday. Tech stocks powered the rally as the S&P 500 closed trading in the green for the year.4,5
Friday was the Dow’s turn to erase year-to-date losses and get back in the green while the Nasdaq and S&P notched a five-day winning streak.6
Markets closed the week with modest gains, largely looking past weak consumer sentiment data released on Friday.

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

All Eyes on Economic Data

The retail (CPI) and wholesale inflation reports (Producer Price Index) were mild, although most economists didn’t expect tariffs to impact prices in the first month of implementation.
Retail sales ticked up slightly (as expected), while industrial production and housing starts showed signs of tariff impact.7,8
Expect traders to continue to closely watch economic reports to better understand whether tariffs are showing up in the data.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1WSJ.com, May 16, 2025
2Investing.com, May 16, 2025
3CNBC.com, May 12, 2025
4WSJ.com, May 13, 2025
5CNBC.com, May 15, 2025
6MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025
7WSJ.com, May 13, 2025
8MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, May 12, 2025

Fed Talk Helps Ease Market Volatility:

Stocks finished lower last week as volatility eased despite ongoing trade concerns and the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on short-term interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.16%, while the S&P 500 Index lost 0.47 %. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.27%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.37%.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 5/2/25 = 0)

Stocks Go Sideways

Stocks dropped on Monday, ending the S&P 500’s 9-day winning streak as the trade anxiety weighed on investors.3,4
Sentiment picked up midweek, however. In a widely expected move, the Fed held short-term interest rates steady but warned of lingering uncertainty around tariffs’ effects on inflation and unemployment.5,6
On Thursday, the U.S.-U.K. trade deal sparked a slight rally, but stocks flattened as the week ended. Investors appeared to be risk-averse with U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for the weekend.7

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

The Fed Fans Out

The Federal Reserve wanted to get its message out last week. Within 48 hours of the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, nearly every Fed governor gave a solo speech or discussed the decision on a panel.
One Fed official spoke about the benefits of long-term stability from an independent Fed. At the same time, another said the Fed was paying close attention to what consumers did—and not just what they said, suggesting that flagging consumer sentiment didn’t necessarily mean a slowdown in spending.7
The Fed seemed to focus on managing expectations. Perhaps more importantly, Fed officials spoke from a coordinated playbook, possibly designed to help settle financial markets.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025
2Investing.com, May 9, 2025
3CNBC.com, May 5, 2025
4CNBC.com, May 6, 2025
5The Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2025
6CNBC.com, May 8, 2025
7The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Tariffs and Deals: Can You Put the Genie Back in the Bottle?

By Gary Aiken | May 8, 2025

The tariff announcements on Liberation Day were bigger and bolder than anything Wall Street had imagined. Since then, I’ve cataloged the desperate rationalization of bad policy. Some ascribe goals post-hoc to the tariffs, and others to justify the base illiteracy of the initial tariff schedule. We must recognize that tariffs are a new, semi-permanent reality. Pro-tariff arguments fall into two categories: geopolitical and domestic.
The geopolitical arguments revolve around using tariffs, mostly against China.
  • We must change trade patterns because countries are “ripping us off.”
  • Tariffs are a negotiating ploy, and China will cave first.
  • Tariffs will align our trading partners against China.
The trade imbalances that have arisen since China’s entry into the WTO have become quite enormous. China is a bad actor. They steal technology, dump cheap goods, hide spyware in products, and use near-slave labor and dangerous chemicals in production, among other nasty habits. Further, the Chinese have been using their economic and military power to encroach upon our allies in Southeast Asia and around the world. Confronting China has been a growing and bi-partisan theme and effort in the United States. Convincing our friends and partners to join us has been difficult as Europe has grown increasingly dependent on China.
Tariffs on Chinese imports will have a serious and detrimental effect on trade and costs. We are already seeing slowdowns in our West Coast ports and trucking demand. While companies (like Apple and Williams-Sonoma, to name two in our portfolios) have been diversifying their supply chains, China remains a large part of the global supply chain, and it will be difficult and costly to extricate. The Trump Administration seems willing to help companies with significant political influence on a case-by-case basis. Still, the determination to change Chinese behavior seems like it will be with us for some longer period.
That said, what are the key takeaways from the geopolitical arguments?
  • We should expect that the cost of goods in the Chinese supply chain will rise significantly, and those prices will be reflected in lower gross margins and higher prices for the consumer.
  • Investment in diversifying supply chains will accelerate – whether it’s to friendshoring, nearshoring, or onshoring.
Let’s move on to the second argument: Tariffs will be good for the domestic economy.
  • Tariffs will raise revenue, and that will allow us to cut taxes.
  • Tariffs won’t be inflationary.
  • Companies will adjust to tariffs; there won’t be any serious consequences.
  • We are “Volckering ourselves.” Tanking the economy to lower interest rates and lower interest rates are necessary.
I think the argument that the Smoot Hawley tariffs were the cause of the Great Depression is overwrought. There’s greater evidence that other factors were more significant — especially the intransigence of the Federal Reserve (I’d point our readers to the book Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed for a thorough case). Tariffs will raise revenue, although that revenue will be offset by lower economic activity overall. Lower economic activity means lower tax revenues and, in today’s situation, greater fiscal deficits. While fiscal deficits aren’t inflationary all by themselves, they certainly won’t lead to lower interest rates or less inflation.
Companies in the supply chain of tariffs will be forced to make choices about how to deal with the increased cost of goods. There are only so many ways to squeeze a balloon without it popping. Retailers report earnings at the end of earnings season, and some were forthcoming about how they would deal with tariffs. Williams-Sonoma gave us a six-point plan that isn’t revolutionary but revelatory and likely representative of the conversations in every company’s top management.

Source: Williams-Sonoma, Inc. 2025 Investor Presentation, March 19, 2025

As for the final point about “Volckering” ourselves. Inducing a recession is a dicey proposition. Fed Chair Volcker did it with the blessing of Presidents Carter and Reagan. Inflation was running double digits, and a jarring of the economy was necessary. Today, inflation is running at 3% and unemployment at 4.2%. It seems hardly necessary to induce a recession to bring rates down from 4.5% to potentially 3.5%. Also, having a recession while the federal deficit is already near 6% of GDP seems more likely to raise suspicion that the Federal Debt is out of control and that long-term interest rates should rise significantly to compensate for dubious policy goals.
The key takeaways from the domestic arguments are:
  • Tariff revenues will likely come in lower than expected, as tariffs tend to reduce overall economic activity and may lead to a decline in general tax revenue. Without spending cuts, deficits will grow larger.
  • Inducing recession fears to provoke a central bank response is unlikely to work and could backfire if a recession materializes.
We do not have a crystal ball, but we do have the ability to assign probabilities to various scenarios. At the beginning of 2025, we told clients to prepare for greater volatility as this year would likely be a grind. April brought showers of volatility from the Liberation Day tariff announcements. May flowers might sprout in the form of deals to ameliorate the markets’ fears.

Author

Gary Aiken, Chief Investment Officer

Gary Aiken is the Chief Investment Officer for Concord Asset Management and is responsible for macroeconomic analysis, asset allocation, and security selection, as well as trading and investment operations.

Gary has over 21 years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Maryland and an MBA from The George Washington University School of Business.

—

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of this content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at www.concordassetmgmt.com. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, May 5, 2025

Markets Rise to Kick Off May Trading:

Stocks climbed last week, driven by optimism around the White House’s positive trade remarks, strong Q1 corporate earnings, and a promising April jobs report.
The S&P 500 Index gained 2.92%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.42 %. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.00%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.56%.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 4/25/25 = 0)

Longest Winning Streak in 20 Years

During the first two trading days, stocks increased as investors responded favorably to White House comments on tariff deals.3
Then midweek—on the last day of the month—fresh data showed the economy contracted by 0.3 percent in Q1—the first decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in three years. Stocks initially fell on the news but staged a stunning recovery to add a seventh day to the S&P 500’s and Dow Industrial’s winning streaks.4
Q1 corporate reports from a couple of mega-cap tech companies boosted all three major averages over the next session, with Nasdaq leading the rise. By Thursday’s close, Nasdaq had returned to its pre-April 2 levels.5
The rally accelerated on Friday as a better-than-expected April jobs report eased some concerns about the economy’s strength. Signs of a potential thaw in Washington-Beijing trade relations also boosted enthusiasm. The Dow Industrials rose for a ninth straight session, as did the S&P 500—its longest winning streak in 20 years.6

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

Solid Jobs Report

The April jobs report showed employers added 177,000 jobs last month—34,000 more than economists expected.
The report quieted talk about a recession, which was welcomed news. The April figure also showed the economy was still adding jobs despite a sluggish Q1 GDP report. However, the strong report did prompt some traders to push out expectations for an interest rate adjustment until the Fed’s July meeting.7,8

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2025
2Investing.com, May 2, 2025
3CNBC.com, April 29, 2025
4The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2025
5CNBC.com, May 1, 2025
6CNBC.com, May 2, 2025
7MarketWatch.com, May 2, 2025
8CNBC.com, May 2, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, April 28, 2025

Latest Trade Talks Spark Market Optimism:

Stocks climbed higher last week, driven by optimistic remarks from the White House highlighting progress in ongoing trade negotiations.
The S& P’s 500 Index gained 4.59% while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 6.73%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding 2.48%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 2.86%.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 4/17/25 = 0)

Markets Rally

Markets opened the week lower as investors continued to fret about China trade tensions. But sentiment quickly shifted.3
Stocks rebounded Tuesday following news that the administration intended to de-escalate tensions with China over tariffs. The rally extended through two more consecutive sessions as investors responded favorably to reassuring comments from the administration.
Markets also were encouraged after the president said he had “no intention” of firing the Fed Chair Powell. They also liked hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that the U.S. had an “opportunity for a big deal” with a key trading partner.4,5
Megacap tech stocks, which had been under pressure for several weeks, regained momentum during the week, leading the market’s advance.6,7

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

Housing Market Update

Fresh housing data released last week showed the median price for a newly constructed home ($403,600) and an existing home ($403,700) were virtually identical in March. This is unusual.
Typically, the average new home costs more than the average existing home. But last month, the median new-home price while the median existing-home price rose and hit a new all-time high.8

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025
2Investing.com, April 25, 2025
3MarketWatch.com, April 21, 2025
4CNBC.com, April 22, 2025
5The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025
6CNBC.com, April 24, 2025
7The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025
8MarketWatch.com, April 24, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, April 21, 2025

Stocks Slide as Q1 Earnings Arrive:

U.S. stocks dipped during the shortened trading week as investors began assessing the first wave of Q1 corporate earnings reports, awaiting key results from major industries to gauge the health of the economy and future market trends.
The S&P 500 Index dropped 1.50%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.62%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.66%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 4.19%.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 4/11/25 = 0)

U.S. Stocks Slide

Stocks started the four-day week with modest gains. Trade volatility subsided as several money center banks reported Q1 numbers at or above expectations.3
Stocks trended lower midweek after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that tariffs would likely “move us further away from our goals”—including keeping inflation in check.4
Stocks were mixed on the week’s last trading day as traders evaluated White House news that trade deals were progressing with Japan, China, and the European Union. The S&P 500 ended the day higher, but the Dow Industrials were under pressure after a large healthcare company gave a disappointing Q1 report.5

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

The Fed’s Influence

Stocks were under pressure following comments from Fed Chair Powell, who expressed concern about the ability of the Fed to balance its inflation and employment goals given the current trade situation. He said, “Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” and “the inflationary effects could be more persistent.”6
These are Powell’s latest remarks about tariffs. The Fed Chair made similar comments earlier this month at an event in Alexandria, Virginia.7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, April 17, 2025
2Investing.com, April 17, 2025
3CNBC.com, April 15, 2025
4CNBC.com, April 16, 2025
5WSJ.com, April 17, 2025
6CNBC.com, April 16, 2025
7CNBC.com, April 4, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, April 14, 2025

Late Rally Caps Volatile Trading Week:

Stocks finished on a high note last week, notching strong gains following another volatile week of trading. Investors seemed to otherwise downplay encouraging inflation news, keeping their attention firmly on the latest tariff developments.
The S&P’s 500 Index rose 5.70%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.29%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 4.95%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.72%.1,2

Stocks Rebound

Stocks rallied on Monday after a report surfaced that the administration was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. But when the White House clarified its position, sellers stepped in.
On Tuesday, prices jumped at the next opening bell after the Treasury Secretary said the U.S. was open to tariff negotiations with trading partners. The rally stalled and reversed on news the administration was adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports.3
After the White House announced a 90-day pause on specific tariffs on Wednesday, markets pushed higher. The S&P 500 gained 9.5%, its largest one-day increase in 17 years.4
Stocks fell again Thursday morning, appearing to overlook an upbeat Consumer Price Index report showing that core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at a 2.8% annual rate–the best number in more than four years. Stocks finished the week with a powerful rally, capping a volatile trading week.5,6

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

Watching the Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 50 basis points for the week, marking one of the most significant moves on record. (When bond yields increase, bond prices tend to move lower.)
The week’s action was unexpected. In the past, investors have turned to U.S. bonds during market turbulence. However, the ongoing tariff talks have, at least temporarily, influenced how some overseas investors view U.S. bonds.7,8
The bond market activity influenced the mortgage market, where the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage closed Friday at 7.1%, its highest level in two months.9

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025
2Investing.com, April 11, 2025
3CNBC.com, April 8, 2025
4The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025
5The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2025
6MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2025
7WSJ.com, April 9, 2025
8MarketWatch.com, April 9, 2025
9CNBC.com, April 11, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, April 7, 2025

Markets Tumble as New White House Tariffs Shake Investors

Stocks saw a widespread downturn last week as markets, both domestic and international, reacted to the White House’s new tariff announcements.
The S&P 500 Index declined 9.08%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10.02%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.86%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 7.39%.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 3/28/25 = 0)

Under Pressure

Stocks rallied the first half of the week as markets tried to anticipate the potential impact of tariffs previously announced by the White House3
Soon after the closing bell on Wednesday, President Trump’s new tariffs surprised markets. Global markets reacted to the news overnight.4
Markets opened lower on Thursday, and the selling continued through Friday. Treasuries rallied in a flight to quality as investors moved to the sidelines. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed Friday at 4.0%. Bond yields generally fall when bond prices rise.5,6

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

Powell’s Speech

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a previously scheduled and much-anticipated speech on Friday. He explained:
  • The labor market is in good shape and not a significant source of inflation.
  • Longer-term inflation expectations are “well anchored and consistent with our 2% inflation goal” – despite higher expectations for inflation over the short term.
  • Regarding consumer sentiment, while consumers “may not feel great about the economy now, they still keep spending.” He added that the same happened during the pandemic.
  • The Fed’s policy stance is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity… (on the likely effects of trade and fiscal policy, for example) before considering any changes in monetary policy.”7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025
2Investing.com, April 4, 2025
3MarketWatch.com, April 1, 2025
4The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2025
5MarketWatch.com, April 3, 2025
6The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025
7MarketWatch.com, April 4, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Anchors Aweigh? The Unmooring of Inflation Expectations

By Gary Aiken | April 3, 2025

I often include relevant excerpts from the University of Michigan survey of households and businesses into my insights and reports. This month, I think it is important to elevate the inflation expectations portion of the survey. Federal Reserve committee members and chairs have pointed to inflation expectations as a vital ingredient among the other hard and soft data in the recipe they use to bake monetary policy. Sometimes, this information is half-baked and at other times, it gives great concern.
There are two types of inflation expectations: market-based and sentiment-based. Market-based measures were harder to define before the U.S. Treasury started issuing Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). If you subtract the real yield on a TIPS from the nominal yield Treasury Note of the same maturity, you can call the difference the market’s expectation for inflation over the period to maturity. Sentiment-based measures involve asking people what they think inflation might be over the next year or the next 5-10 years. This is what the University of Michigan does in its survey.
The Federal Reserve has said that it wants inflation to run at about 2% per year and that this targeted level of inflation promotes growth and a healthy economy. Nominal interest rates and the Fed Funds Rate should incorporate this inflation rate and expected economic growth. And yet, despite this promotion and years of Fed chairs insisting that inflation expectations are “well anchored,” the latest data seems to suggest that inflation expectations have become unmoored.
Our chart this month shows three lines. The line with the least volatility is the market-based measure of inflation expectations. The five-year inflation breakeven on TIPS fluctuated between 1.9% and 2.7% (still averaging well above the Fed’s target). The University of Michigan survey pegs inflation historically higher between 2.2% and 3.4% (until recently). Actual inflation though has been much wilder. While at some points (1998-1999), inflation expectations formed a reasonable basis for future inflation, for most of the past 25 years, market and survey-based measures of future inflation have been extremely poor at projecting into the future.

Inflation Prediction vs. Actual Inflation

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Labor Statistics, University of Michigan

Which leads us to today. The University of Michigan survey came out with its highest reading of five-year forward inflation expectations (4.1%) since the first Gulf War in 1991, when oil prices spiked. Similarly, TIPS-embedded five-year forward inflation expectations are also near historic highs (2.6%). The public, whether consumers or investors, doesn’t believe the Fed is winning the war on inflation. The Fed needs the confidence of the marketplace to be taken seriously, but why should the marketplace believe the Fed? Actual inflation (CPI-U) has been running at a 4.7% annual pace versus the mild 2.5% we expected in February 2020. They are failing to provide stable prices per their mandate.
Add tariffs, taxes, DOGE, and war, and it is logical to expect higher bond and stock market volatility, as we predicted in our Forecast Report. Yogi Berra once quipped, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” And while this is true, I strongly believe this volatility will yield opportunities to buy financial assets at discounted prices. Combining that fortitude with a solid financial plan is a recipe for long-term financial success, no matter how half-baked forward-looking data may be.

Author

Gary Aiken, Chief Investment Officer

Gary Aiken is the Chief Investment Officer for Concord Asset Management and is responsible for macroeconomic analysis, asset allocation, and security selection, as well as trading and investment operations.

Gary has over 21 years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Maryland and an MBA from The George Washington University School of Business.

—

*Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [CONSP5MD Index] (Accessed on April 1, 2025)

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of this content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at www.concordassetmgmt.com. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, March 31, 2025

Tariff and Inflation News Shape a Volatile Week for Stocks:

Stocks declined last week as investor sentiment fluctuated between optimism and disappointment. These shifts were largely driven by ongoing tariff developments and new inflation data, which raised concerns about potential trade disruptions and fueled uncertainty about future interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500 Index fell 1.53%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 2.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.96%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 1.29%.1,2

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 3/24/25 = 0)

An Up and Down Week

Stocks started the week with a sharp rally after the White House said it may “give a lot of countries breaks” on reciprocal tariffs. The positive momentum continued into Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 outpacing the Dow.3
Then, midweek, news that the White House was planning additional tariffs on all cars made outside the U.S. rattled markets.4,5
On Friday, investors reacted to a warmer-than-expected inflation report and lower consumer sentiment, putting further pressure on stocks as the week closed.6

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab

Noise vs. Signal

There can be a lot of noise in the market from time to time. This can make it hard for investors to interpret information as they search for the actual signal.
Last week, investors were trying to interpret the White House decision to impose tariffs on all cars and some car parts made outside of the U.S. While some automakers are domestic and others are foreign-based, the question is whether companies will absorb the additional costs, pass them on to consumers, or look to build factories in the United States.7
Separating the noise from the signal may take time, which can be more challenging when the markets react to new tariff updates as they are announced.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
—

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2025
2Investing.com, March 28, 2025
3CNBC.com, March 25, 2025
4CNBC.com, March 26, 2025
5CNBC.com, March 27, 2025
6The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2025
7MarketWatch.com, March 27, 2025

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any specific securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordwealthpartners.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.