Weekly Market Insights – Monday, April 1, 2024

Stocks Finish Q1 Strong After Mixed Holiday Week:

Stocks finished narrowly higher on the week as investors processed mixed economic news. Notably, all three major market indices posted gains for Q1 2024, reflecting an overall positive start to the year.

Stocks Finish Strong

Markets slipped for the first half of the four-day week as investors took a breather after the prior week’s gain. Conflicting economic news on Monday and Tuesday contributed to the slide. New home sales in February slipped 0.3 percent over the prior month but increased by 5.9 percent from the prior year. Durable goods orders—everything from washing machines to helicopters—rebounded 1.4 percent in February, beating expectations and recouping some of January’s 6.9 percent drop.1,2,3
Stocks rallied on Wednesday, including a fresh record close for the Standard & Poor’s 500. An upward revision to consumer sentiment on Thursday helped the rally along. The markets are closed on Friday when the much-anticipated inflation report called the Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) is released, which could set up a volatile Monday.4

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Doubters & Believers

Getting a straightforward read on consumers this week was challenging. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index remained essentially unchanged—as it has for the past six months—showing consumers were generally pessimistic about the future.
But on Thursday, the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey showed consumer confidence hit a 2½-year high in March. It suggested that consumers had gained more confidence that inflation would drop and alleviate some pressure on household finances. Friday’s PCE report may give some additional insights into consumer confidence.5,6

Sources: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. and U.S. Department of the Treasury

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2024
2CNBC, March 25, 2024
3Reuters, March 26, 2024
4CNBC, March 26, 2024
5MarketWatch.com, March 28, 2024
6The Conference Board, March 26, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, March 25, 2024

Fed Optimism Boosts Markets to Record Highs:

Last week, stocks rallied with their most impressive performance of the year fueled by dovish comments from Fed officials who indicated that multiple rate cuts could still be possible this year, despite keeping rates steady at the FOMC’s March meeting.

Stocks Bounce Back

As widely expected, the Fed left rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. But somewhat less expected, the Fed signaled its inclination to cut interest rates three times this year—each time by a quarter percentage point. That was a positive surprise for some, who worried that recent hot inflation reports would cause the Fed to reconsider its stance.1
Markets pushed higher Wednesday following the news, with all three averages closing at record highs. The rally continued through Thursday, boosted further by news that existing home sales rose 9.5 percent in February.2,3
The week’s rally was broad-based overall, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posting gains (health care dropped slightly). At one point late in the week, nearly one in four S&P 500 stocks were trading at 52-week highs. That was the highest proportion in three years, which supports the idea that the rally was broadening out from mega-cap tech stocks.4

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Turning Point

The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision marks a turning point as the Fed signaled that its target range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent has topped out. That target range, in place since late last year, is the highest level in 23 years.
“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this type of cycle,” said Fed Chair Powell at the post-meeting press conference. He added that if the economy keeps on its current course, that the FOMC would likely “begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.” If the FOMC votes to ease it at its June meeting, it would be the first cut in four years.4,5

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2024
2CNBC, March 20, 2024
3Sector SPDRs, March 22, 2024
4MarketWatch.com, March 22, 2024
5The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, March 18, 2024

Stocks Slip in Second Week of Retreat:

Stocks declined for a second consecutive week due to ongoing concerns about inflation, despite a positive initial reaction from investors to a report on consumer prices. Market sentiment continued to decline as the week progressed following disappointing retail sales and further analysis of inflationary data.

Stocks Slide

Tuesday was the only bright spot during the week as stock prices rose after the Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% in February compared with a year earlier. It was a bit warmer than economists expected but cooler than investors feared. The news sparked a day-long rally, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index setting its 17th record high of the year.1,2
Following the brief rally, caution lingered as investors parsed the underlying data behind headline consumer inflation numbers. Thursday’s fresh producer price index (PPI) report showed that wholesale prices increased by 0.6% in February, more than the expected 0.3% increase. Additionally, core PPI (excluding food and energy) was hotter than expected.
Retail sales, also reported on Thursday, were disappointing, rising less than expected and adding to the inflation angst. The news rattled investors and contributed to stocks closing lower for three consecutive days to end the week.3,4

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Broadening Leadership

Unlike the prior week when the S&P 500 fell the least, last week it lost slightly more than the Dow but less than the Nasdaq. That performance pattern suggests market leadership may be broadening. Also, the energy, financials, and materials sectors all posted gains last week, showing that other groups may join the tech-led rally.5

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024
2The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2024
3CNBC, March 15, 2024
4CNBC, March 15, 2024
5Sector SPDRs, March 15, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, March 11, 2024

Fed Testimony and Mixed Jobs Data Shake Up Markets:

Stocks finished lower last week as some investors opted to take profits amid the trading volatility. Despite a midweek rally following positive remarks from Fed Chairman Powell, Friday’s employment news resulted in increased uncertainty among investors to close out the week.

Markets Wobble

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all began the week off more than 1% on Tuesday alone. Mega-cap tech stocks were under pressure as investors appeared to take some profits.
Markets clawed back much of their losses on Wednesday and Thursday, with the Fed Chair’s upbeat comments to the Senate Banking Committee boosting stocks. Chair Powell said that once the Fed was confident inflation was tracking “sustainably at 2%,” the Fed would consider cutting short-term interest rates. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied, with the S&P hitting a record close.1,2,3

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Friday’s employment news threw some uncertainty into the mix. The economy added 275,000 jobs in February—exceeding the 198,000 expected—but wage growth slowed, and jobless claims edged up. Some investors saw that as a negative, while others viewed it as a “Goldilocks” moment—an economy that’s not too hot or cold. Stocks initially rallied on the news, but profit-takers appeared to arrive as the day progressed.4,5

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Productivity, AI, and the Fed

Productivity is one of the critical data points the Fed reviews to determine its next steps with monetary policy. Producing more goods or services with fewer resources helps the economy grow while managing inflation risks.
The 3.2% productivity gains in Q4 reported last week were mainly attributed to the post-pandemic repair of supply chains. However, investors may hope that artificial intelligence will play a more significant role in productivity increases.6,7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2024
2MarketWatch, March 6, 2024
3CNBC, March 7, 2024
4CNBC, March 8, 2024
5The Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2024
6The Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2024
7Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 7, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Dining Out: An Indicator of Economic Health?

By Gary Aiken | March 7, 2024

My wife and I celebrated our 19th wedding anniversary during Presidents’ Day weekend. Two things about that evening anecdotally describe opposing views on the U.S. economy. As we drove downtown, I prepared myself to pay the exorbitant valet fee to park our car. While we waited for the traffic light to change, my wife spotted an open parking spot on the street about 30 feet from our destination. I swung around and scooped it up. What luck, a prime parking spot in posh Georgetown. The spot shouldn’t have been there, but there it was.
The parking space that shouldn’t have been was a signal that slack existed in the parking market. When economists examine the state of the economy, they look for similar indicators. One such signal is the “output gap.” The output gap is the difference between the potential for production in an economy and the actual production in an economy. If actual production is below potential, then there is deemed to be slack in the economy. There’s an optimistic and pessimistic way to view slack. If there is sufficient slack, that means that the economy will grow in the future: the factors of production will necessarily get less expensive in real terms, making it possible to invest today and produce tomorrow. Today’s slack begets tomorrow’s growth. Glass half full.

The Output Gap Shows Slack in the US Economy

Source: OECD, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

On the other hand, the new emergence of slack in the economy may indicate that the economy has exhausted the limits of current productivity. The means of production have become too expensive. The ability to achieve real returns above the cost of capital is scarce. Businesses choose to hire fewer employees and delay new projects. The economy slows: parking spots have become available because no one is going out anymore.
But the parking spot was available, so we parked and rejoiced in our good fortune. We went inside. Stepping into the bustling lobby, we approached the maître d’ and informed her of our arrival. While waiting for our table, we noticed the restaurant was absolutely packed. Not only that, but in this expensive restaurant, we saw a man in sweats and a hoodie at the bar ordering a pricey drink and steak. Never judge a book by its cover and all that, but it seemed like a pretty good indicator that there was no recession here!
Perhaps the patrons of this restaurant were feeling so exuberant about the economy that they didn’t mind splurging on the valet cost. I’m a capitalist, so I have no issues with this. After all, choice is what makes a market. Still, what we found inside was at odds with what we found outside.
Finding things not as they are supposed to be is a feature of the U.S. economy in March 2024. The Federal Reserve has raised rates from zero to 5.25%. The money supply has declined over the past two years. The unemployment rate bottomed out a year ago, and the yield curve has been inverted for twenty months. These should all be reliable indicators that a recession is right around the corner.

An Inverted Yield Curve Foreshadows a Recession

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This persistent fear of recession in the face of clear evidence that there isn’t a recession is psychological. Investors must find a way to bypass their mental barriers to see risk clearly. My professional career as an investor started when I graduated from college during the early stages of the dotcom bust. The U.S. stock market dropped 50%. As markets recovered what they’d lost, I graduated from business school in time to witness the Great Financial Crisis and stocks to decline 50% again. My psychological experience, and that of many investors today, is built on a foundation of painfully bracing for the next crisis.
My viewpoint shift came in the shape of a new boss’s truism: in a bull market, the market makes new highs every other day. It’s okay to invest in stocks at “all-time highs.” If the market goes up 1 point tomorrow, it will be another “all-time high.” The wall of worry is steep today, given news headlines containing war, a contentious election, immigration, crime, government shutdowns, and democracy in peril! Ultimately, those headlines will be replaced with new fears du jour. For the stock market, only earnings matter in the long run.

Bloomberg Estimates Price/Earnings Ratio

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Now that earnings season is mostly behind us, let’s talk about earnings and valuation. The two-year forward price-to-earnings multiple for the S&P 500 stands at about 18.6x. While that is expensive, it’s not nearly as expensive as at the heights a few years ago. Concord’s base case going into this year was to expect that the economy would continue to grow and that earnings growth would accelerate. That thesis has played out so far. Of course, much of that growth has come from companies making semiconductors and software for Artificial Intelligence or GLP-1 drugs to combat obesity and diabetes. The Equal Weight S&P 500 two-year forward price-to-earnings multiple, shown on the chart above, is 15.3x. That’s average for the past ten years. While the highfliers power the market weight index higher, the average stock has not yet participated. We think this represents a future opportunity.
My wife and I were lucky to find a great parking spot, and the restaurant was full. There are signs of slack in the economy and signs of exuberance. It’s past time for investors to put their weariness about the price of stocks and bonds to rest. The economy is good. Interest rates are rising because the economy can handle higher rates. There are pockets of the markets where there will be pain – but that’s always the case in good times and bad. Our approach is to try to identify and avoid these pockets. Overall, the average stock is priced for mediocrity. We think the chances are better than good that most companies can step over this low bar.

Author

Gary Aiken, Chief Investment Officer

Gary Aiken is the Chief Investment Officer for Concord Asset Management and is responsible for macroeconomic analysis, asset allocation, and security selection, as well as trading and investment operations.

Gary has over 21 years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Maryland and an MBA from The George Washington University School of Business.

Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of this content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, March 4, 2024

Stocks Surge as Tech and AI Lead the Way:

Stocks continued their upward trajectory last week, driven by the strong performance of the technology sector. Positive economic indicators also point to a resilient consumer base that helped further increase investor enthusiasm.

Nasdaq Sets New High

Stocks traded in a narrow band early in the week but ended the five-trading sessions with a powerful advance.
While the Dow dipped lower, artificial intelligence (AI) names powered the gains in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The Nasdaq bobbed around the 16,000 level for most of the week before posting consecutive record highs on Thursday and Friday, surpassing its 2021 record. It was the last of the three major stock benchmarks to reach a record high this year.
Economic news also helped boost markets. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 percent in January versus December—and 2.4 percent on a 12-month basis. Both were in line with expectations. Stocks ticked up on Thursday following the release of the report.

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Consumers Remain Upbeat

With all the excitement over AI, it’s easy to overlook some key economic indicators that also speak to the underlying strength of the economy—specifically, consumer data.
In addition to the closely watched PCE report, an end-of-week consumer survey revealed that while sentiment softened in February, it remained near a 32-month high. Fresh data this week also showed an unexpected jump in personal income.
Finally, the PCE report also reflected an ongoing consumer shift from goods to services—a sign the economy continues to normalize after the pandemic. Since two-thirds of gross domestic product comes from consumer spending, these consumer-related metrics helped support the narrative that the economy appears to be gathering momentum.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, February 29, 2024
2CNBC.com, February 29, 2024
3MarketWatch.com, March 01, 2024
4CNBC.com, February 27, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, February 26, 2024

AI Powers Stocks to New Highs:

Stocks soared to record highs last week driven by encouraging earnings from the world leader in artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor technology, signaling investors’ confidence in AI’s capacity to revolutionize the U.S. economy.

Stocks Rally

Stocks traded in a fairly tight range for the first half of the short week, yawning at the lack of economic data while awaiting earnings results from one key company that creates chips that power the artificial intelligence operations of many firms.
A strong Q4 corporate report and long-term message from Nvidia Corp. pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new closing highs on Thursday.
Nvidia’s market cap rose by $277 billion on the news, pushing it to a $2 trillion valuation. To put that in perspective, Nvidia’s market cap is now roughly the same size as Canada’s economy. Its 16% gain on Thursday was the largest one-day market cap increase by any U.S. company.1,2
Remember, companies mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any company connected with AI.

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Inflection Point?

Nvidia’s seismic increase in market cap gave investors pause for reflection, wondering whether this marked an inflection point for artificial intelligence.
The main story that investors took away was that, because of its market dominance as the leading global provider of AI computer chips, Nvidia served as a proxy for AI. Some of the world’s most influential companies rely on Nvidia technology to power their own AI initiatives. Investors appear to have concluded that AI’s impact may just be starting, and anticipate it will be a driving economic force in 2024 and beyond.3, 4

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1MarketWatch.com, February 22, 2024
2U.S. News & World Report, February 22, 2024
3CNBC, February 21, 2024
4The Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Stocks Snap Winning Streak on Inflation & Economic News:

Stocks fell heading into the holiday weekend as investors responded to disappointing inflation updates and various economic reports that did not meet expectations.

Markets Fluctuate

Markets were quiet on Monday but opened lower Tuesday in response to the January inflation report that showed higher-than-expected consumer prices. Stocks were able to regain some momentum on Wednesday and rallied on Thursday despite disappointing retail sales and industrial production reports for January.1,2
News of wholesale prices exceeding expectations put investors back on edge Friday and kept stocks from ending the week on a positive note. The weekly loss broke a five-week winning streak.3

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Inflated Perspective

Consumer Price Index data was one of the big pieces of news driving markets last week, with January’s numbers coming in at 3.1 percent compared to a year prior—cooler than December’s 3.4 percent year-over-year gain but warmer than the 2.9 percent consensus. Jittery Investors focused on the hotter-than-expected part.4
With the consumer report closely followed by disappointing inflation news on the producer level, attention quickly shifted to the Fed and what’s next for interest rates. While the Fed has indicated short-term rates may trend lower in 2024, the January inflation reports support Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.4

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2024
2CNBC, February 16, 2024
3The Wall Street Journal, February 15, 2024
4The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Weekly Market Insights – Monday, February 12, 2024

Stocks Hit Record Highs Amid Favorable Earnings and Inflation News:

Last week, stocks experienced substantial gains, ending the trading week on a positive note. This growth, driven by robust corporate reports and favorable inflation news, propelled the S&P 500 Index to reach a new record high by the end of the week.

S&P Tops 5,000

At the start of last week’s trading, stocks faced downward pressure due to comments by Fed Chair Powell over the weekend, signaling that the Federal Reserve had no immediate plans to initiate interest rate cuts. Consequently, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note, highly influenced by monetary policy, increased to its highest level in two months.1
By the end of trading on Monday, stocks had regained a significant portion of their previous losses. Influencing this market rally were positive corporate earnings reports. This trend continued throughout the week, contributing to the overall market momentum. By Friday, 67% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 had released their Q4 results, and an impressive 77% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations.2
Investors expressed enthusiasm on Friday after a report indicating that December’s inflation was lower than initially anticipated. This positive news revitalized buying activity, resulting in the S&P 500 surpassing 5,000 for the first time.3

Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Economic Strength

The strength of the U.S. economy has come into the spotlight. An analysis conducted by The Wall Street Journal recently proposed that the economy’s resilience could be attributed, at least in part, to the productivity driven by the technology sector.4
What might rein in that productivity? One possible influence could be the increase in oil prices witnessed last week. Additionally, shipping companies have been imposing surcharges for several months to mitigate recent conflict, and these charges may contribute to global inflation this year, potentially dampening investor enthusiasm.5
The Wall Street Journal’s headline after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that rate cuts were possible but not expected immediately. The FOMC’s policy language indicated a subtle shift from considering rate cuts to proposing they could be possible unless inflation became a concern.3

This Week: Key Economic Data

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Source: EarningsWhispers

At Concord Asset Management, we design portfolios for the long run, with the ability to navigate various market cycles. However, you can have confidence that we are monitoring these market-moving events, and we will make reasonable, tactical adjustments as necessary.

Author

Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management

Footnotes and Sources

1The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2024
2FactSet.com, February 9, 2024
3CNBC.com, February 9, 2024
4WSJ.com, February 8, 2024
5CNBC, February 9, 2024

The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Concord Asset Management, LLC (“CAM”) is a registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CAM is affiliated, and shares advisory personnel with Concord Wealth Partners (“CWP”). CAM offers advisory services, including customized sub-advisory solutions, to other registered investment advisers and/or institutional managers, including its affiliate, Concord Wealth Partners, LLC. CAM’s investment advisory services are only offered to current or prospective clients where CAM and its investment adviser representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided in this commentary is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CAM or its affiliates, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CAM or CWP. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CAM and CWP are neither law firms nor certified public accounting firms, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CAM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/

Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, please remember to contact us, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CAM and CWP shall continue to rely on the accuracy of the information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a CAM or CWP client, strong>please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Demographics: Tailwind or Headwind?

By Gary Aiken | February 7, 2024

There is a saying, “Demographics is destiny” attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte. Demographers specialize in analyzing and predicting shifts in the size and composition of human populations. Economic historians study the impact of these demographic shifts on wars, scientific advancements, and the evolving political economies of nations. Both disciplines often provide reliable forecasts; however, demographic trends typically take decades, or even multiple decades to fully play out. We as investors, must make decisions in real time and do not have the luxury of waiting for the long arc of history to materialize.
Thus, the important question for investors is how long must we wait? When is the right time to make investment decisions based on looming and seemingly obvious demographic changes? You can be right about the long-term effects of demographics and still never profit from your correct analysis. Some investment firms use demographics as a theme for investing, and while Concord doesn’t paint itself into any one corner, demographic trends certainly factor into our macroeconomic outlook, our sector overweight and underweights, and ultimately, the securities that end up in client portfolios. Again, not every investment has to fit neatly into that framework, but the ones that end up being “obvious in hindsight” often have a demographic element.
In my 2023 and 2024 Forecasts, I mentioned that China has yet to emerge from its COVID-19-induced slump and that we were avoiding direct and indirect investment in China as much as possible. Two factors beyond the pandemic have furthered the slump. First, the Xi regime has embarked on a campaign to put “new thought” at the forefront of all activities of China. The Chinese Communist Party under Xi’s control dismissed many of the leaders of the previous generation that saw China rise technologically and in GDP. Xi aims to return to his version of Mao’s “Common Prosperity.” If history is any guide, a renewed focus on communism rather than capitalism will not end well. Pithily, communists don’t seem to care very much for personal property rights — especially those of foreigners. At Concord, one of our tenets of investing in foreign countries is that they respect both capitalism and the rule of law.
Beyond these overtly political issues, China has another issue that has been long coming to the forefront, and one known well to humanitarians. The “One Child Policy” limited Chinese families to one child for each household and remained in place from 1980 to 2016.1 Further, the ratio of males to females in China is about 104:100 — too many boys.2 While it is unknown why this disparity exists, there are potentially sinister implications. This imbalance and policy have undoubtedly led to a precipitously declining fertility rate well below the replacement rate. Rather than growing, China may shrink over the coming decades. Population growth is a key contributor to GDP growth. Organic population growth or growth through immigration is preferable to population decline and emigration.
China generally presents problems for investors seeking growth opportunities. Our decision to avoid Chinese stocks and bonds was based primarily on skepticism about the country’s economic emergence from COVID-19, issues with overbuilding in the property sector, and bad loans in the banking sector combined with the whole “communism thing.” Demographics is the proverbial nail in the coffin — something we understood should come eventually, but its market impact couldn’t be timed.
The United States, on the other hand, with a growing population, showed strong GDP growth in 2023. As a result, and because of sustained inflation, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its short-term interest rate target at 5.25% at its January meeting. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and full employment. Inflation is still the main concern in 2024. Chairman Powell has room to maneuver on the employment front partly due to a growing population, which increases aggregate demand, further fueling job growth, household formation, and opportunity.
The chart below shows Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States. While the unemployment rate and survey methodology have flaws, jobless claims are tougher to mistake. An unemployment claim is created when an out-of-work person goes to their state unemployment agency and files a claim for unemployment benefits — money talks. Approximately 1.9 million Americans were out of work as of the week of January 20, 2024. While the number of jobless claims is rising, it is still at a level far below any that would be considered recessionary.

U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

The raw number of unemployed workers is only half the story. There are more Americans today than there were last year. There were more last year than the year before that, and so on. The chart below shows the working-age population of the United States between the ages of 15 and 64.

U.S. Working Age Population (Ages 15 to 64)

Source: OECD, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Positive demographics push the economy forward even during tough stretches. Population growth puts upward pressure on aggregate demand. Not only is the population growing, but household formation is also trending higher. Household formation means home purchases, loans, goods and services, automobile purchases, and babies. A growing economy means more consumers demanding more goods and services. A capitalist economy with abundant natural, capital and human resources, like the United States, can provide those goods and services better, faster, and cheaper. American stocks enable participation in that growth.
The return of household formation was part of the decision to allocate assets to homebuilder stocks in 2023. While not the entire thesis, demographic trends were a tailwind, not a headwind. Household formation alone is not enough to make homebuilders sustainably profitable. Many large homebuilders changed how they do business after the 2008-10 experience. The ones we own have stronger balance sheets. They do not engage heavily in land speculation. They are careful not to overbuild. They have a new buyer – large institutional single-family landlords. Importantly, they were cheap on an absolute and relative basis. A new generation of homebuyers looking to move out of their parents’ basement (joking aside) formed a demographic tailwind for an investment thesis but was not a key dependency.
The Federal Reserve has an intermediate-term view. Demographics may be an interesting topic for a research paper or an entertaining lecture, but not pertinent to policymaking quarter to quarter. At its January meeting, Chairman Powell clarified that the market was getting ahead of itself concerning falling interest rates. While the inflation data is coming down, long-term inflation is still high. It’s an election year, and this is a highly political and politicized Fed despite the “independence” talk. We expect the Fed to take more time to lower interest rates, likely slower than the market expects. First, they don’t want to give inflation a chance to return. Second, because the economy is still strong and unemployment is low. Third, the economy may structurally adapt to the current level of interest rates without significant cost to growth, something I think is not priced into interest rates.
During our Forecast event, I made what some clients might have thought of as a contradictory statement. I said that I thought decreasing inflation would likely lead to lower rates in 2024, but that our base case was still for higher rates over the next five years. While the Federal Reserve can control rates at the short end of the curve, its yield curve control and quantitative easing experiment is over. Zero percent interest rates distort financial markets and prices. Artificially low interest rates encourage reckless behavior by consumers, businesses, and bankers—especially bad bankers.
Treasury borrowing will increase in 2024 above 2023 levels, and unless changes are made, the debt will grow larger and larger. Just as demographics impact GDP growth – we just don’t know when – growing debts to an unsustainable level will eventually result in higher long-term interest rates. We had a 40-year trend where long-term interest rates declined. That ended in April 2020 with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to maturity at 0.98%.
Whether it is inflation sustained above the Fed’s target, the weight of too much debt chasing too few lenders, or just normalization of the yield curve because the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle higher interest rates, our opinion is that longer-term interest rates are more likely to be higher in the future than lower. But even if we are wrong, we take a mathematical approach to risk-taking in bonds.
If we were to buy the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note today (January 31, 2024), we would buy it with a yield to maturity of approximately 3.89%. If interest rates went down 100 basis points (1 percentage point), our total return for the year would be 11.7%. Not too shabby. But if interest rates went up 100 basis points, our total return for the year would be -3.3%. We’d lose money.
On a risk/reward basis, consider the relative performance of buying 2-year Notes instead. While we think rates are more likely to rise, if we are wrong and interest rates decline by 100 basis points, an investor in the 2-year Treasury Note would earn 5.3%, and if interest rates rose 100 basis points, the “downside” would be to earn 3.4%. If these scenarios (2-year or 10-year) were a coin flip, buying the 10-year note has a 4.2% expected return, and the 2-year note has a 4.3% expected return.
Buyers of longer-term bonds seek protection from events that form blocks in the wall of worry. These events though tend to be short-lived or never happen at all. Holding a 10-year bond because of a six-month worry seems illogical for long-term investors like us. Concord’s base case is that the economy will continue to grow in 2024 and beyond. Look beyond the wall of worry; the United States is one of the strongest economies in the world. And demographic trends are going our way, too.

Author

Gary Aiken, Chief Investment Officer

Gary Aiken is the Chief Investment Officer for Concord Asset Management and is responsible for macroeconomic analysis, asset allocation, and security selection, as well as trading and investment operations.

Gary has over 21 years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Maryland and an MBA from The George Washington University School of Business.

Sources:

1Pletcher, Kenneth. Encyclopedia Britannica, January 3, 2024.
2Minzer, Carl. Council on Foreign Relations, January 26, 2024.

Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Concord Asset Management, or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this article serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Concord Asset Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Concord Asset Management is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of this content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Concord Asset Management’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https://concordassetmgmt.com/. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please remember to contact the firm in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating, and/or revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Concord Asset Management and Concord Wealth Partners shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided. Please Note: If you are a Concord Asset Management or Concord Wealth Partners client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.