Market Rally Loses Steam as Fed Weighs Next Move:
Stocks declined last week as the post-election rally lost momentum due to an uptick in inflation and cautious comments from Fed officials about future interest rate adjustments, which raised concerns among investors.
The S&P 500 Index fell 2.08%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 3.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.24%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dropped by 2.38%.1,2
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. (Performance data normalized 10/4/24 = 0)
Rally Fizzles, Data Rattles Investors
Stocks began the week with modest gains as all three major indexes hit record highs. On Tuesday, stocks took a breather with monthly inflation pending.3
News that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ticked up slightly in October injected some uncertainty into the markets. The Producer Price Index released the following day showed wholesale inflation ticked up last month. While both the CPI and PPI aligned with expectations, investors hoped for better news.
Comments from Fed Chair Powell that the Fed wasn’t “in a hurry” to cut rates were a bit unexpected, which put stocks under more pressure.4,5
Stocks dropped again on Friday as strong October retail sales seemed to reinforce Powell’s comments about Fed rate adjustments. News that Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed doubts about what the Fed might do in December, putting further pressure on stocks.6
Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charles Schwab
Tug-O-War
The inflation data that came in last week—retail and wholesale—show that the path to the Fed’s stated goal of 2% inflation may prove bumpy.
For the past couple of years, inflation has been the focus of the Fed’s efforts to manage rising prices by tightening the money supply. Ironically, strong retail sales numbers—while a sign of a strong economy—send a mixed message to investors. Confident consumers tend to spend money, which may take some pressure off the Fed as it looks to manage economic activity.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Source: EarningsWhispers
Author
Gary Aiken
Chief Investment Officer
Concord Asset Management
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Footnotes and Sources
1The Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2024
2Investing.com, November 15, 2024
3CNBC.com, November 12, 2024
4The Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2024
5The Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2024
6CNBC.com, November 15, 2024
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