Summer Break, Please! Unpacking Stock Market Events
By Gary Aiken | August 6, 2024 I’m sweating. What happened to summer break?! I deleted a last-minute slide from my Halftime Report presentation. The slide in question showed the incredible rise of technology stocks leading U.S. and global stock markets higher from January through June of last year, before a summer sector rotation. The […]
Tough Times for the Treasury
By Gary Aiken | June 6, 2024 May was a good month for U.S. stocks. Earnings reports continued to roll in, showing corporate profits increasing at an 8-10% pace year over year. Concurrently, slightly lower long-term bond yields led to an expansion in the price-to-earnings multiple for U.S. stocks. Still, underlying concerns have been simmering […]
You Call This Stagflation? What’s Up With That?
By Gary Aiken | May 9, 2024 For the first time in seven months, following an impressive rally that saw the S&P 500 surge by nearly 28% from last year’s October lows, stocks declined this April. In my October 2023 analysis, I noted how much negativity was embedded in market participants’ positioning and alluded to […]
If You Can’t Explain It, Don’t Bitcoin: Understanding the 2024 Halving Event
By Gary Aiken | April 11, 2024 My first axiom of investing philosophy is, “If you can’t explain it, don’t buy it.” I can explain how a bitcoin is manufactured. I can explain how a bitcoin is held and secured. I can explain how Bitcoin futures work. I have trouble explaining the actual utility of […]
Dining Out: An Indicator of Economic Health?
By Gary Aiken | March 7, 2024 My wife and I celebrated our 19th wedding anniversary during Presidents’ Day weekend. Two things about that evening anecdotally describe opposing views on the U.S. economy. As we drove downtown, I prepared myself to pay the exorbitant valet fee to park our car. While we waited for the […]
Demographics: Tailwind or Headwind?
By Gary Aiken | February 7, 2024 There is a saying, “Demographics is destiny” attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte. Demographers specialize in analyzing and predicting shifts in the size and composition of human populations. Economic historians study the impact of these demographic shifts on wars, scientific advancements, and the evolving political economies of nations. […]
Christmas Comes Early
By Gary Aiken | December 6, 2023 As far as investors are concerned, Christmas came early! Looking back over the past 70 years, November has usually been an excellent month for stocks, returning 1.4% on average. This year the S&P 500 Total Return Index clocked in at an impressive 9.1% return for November. The bond […]
Hope Is Not A Strategy
By Gary Aiken | November 8, 2023 I have sung Hatikvah, the national anthem of Israel, many times this month—more times than I can recall having ever sung that song before. October was a disastrous month for global democracy. The sole democracy in the Middle East was savagely attacked in a pogrom that killed more […]
Remember September
By Gary Aiken | October 5, 2023 I was driving home from my younger son’s soccer practice. He plugged his iPhone into the car stereo and started playing “September” by Earth, Wind & Fire. The horns blazed, and the smooth vocals of Maurice White asked the question that inspired my son to play the song, […]
Relative Value: An Investment Approach for Navigating Stormy Seas
By Gary Aiken | September 7, 2023 One year ago, I published a note dedicated almost entirely to Jerome Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chairman Powell’s comments were short and to the point. The Federal Reserve, under his leadership, was determined to snuff out inflation using all the […]