In Bessent We Trust? How Politics Could Impact Interest Rates
By Gary Aiken | September 4, 2025 This time last year, we were preparing for the first Fed Funds interest rate cuts since April 2020. The Federal Reserve Board was reluctant to proclaim “Mission Accomplished” as the inflation rate remained stubbornly above its 2% target but could no longer ignore that their monetary policy was […]
Here We Go Again?! U.S. Stocks at All-Time Highs While Uncertainty Reigns
By Gary Aiken | August 7, 2025 In our Forecast Report, we noted that U.S. stock valuations were at all-time highs. Those high prices reflected the market’s collective belief that certainty about the future was also high. That future certainty included a few important assumptions. If any one of those assumptions fell, U.S. stock prices […]
U.S. Debt is Growing. Here’s How We’re Planning Around It.
By Gary Aiken | June 5, 2025 The most powerful think tanks in the United States are the Brookings Institution (on the left) and the Heritage Foundation (on the right). Can you imagine a single issue where these two groups would agree? In 2007, they agreed with former Comptroller of the Currency David Walker that […]
Tariffs and Deals: Can You Put the Genie Back in the Bottle?
By Gary Aiken | May 8, 2025 The tariff announcements on Liberation Day were bigger and bolder than anything Wall Street had imagined. Since then, I’ve cataloged the desperate rationalization of bad policy. Some ascribe goals post-hoc to the tariffs, and others to justify the base illiteracy of the initial tariff schedule. We must recognize […]
Anchors Aweigh? The Unmooring of Inflation Expectations
By Gary Aiken | April 3, 2025 I often include relevant excerpts from the University of Michigan survey of households and businesses into my insights and reports. This month, I think it is important to elevate the inflation expectations portion of the survey. Federal Reserve committee members and chairs have pointed to inflation expectations as […]
The Trade War of 2025: Potential Economic Impacts
By Gary Aiken | March 6, 2025 President Trump announced a multitude of tariffs this week. To be clear, tariffs are a regressive tax on consumers that reduce overall trade, increase prices, and cost jobs. The mechanism of tax payments – while politically expedient – is less important than the decisions made by producers, consumers, […]
The Land of Confusion: Headline Risks and Potential Drawdowns in 2025
By Gary Aiken | February 6, 2025 “Can’t you see this is the land of confusion? Now, this is the world we live in.” – Land of Confusion on the album Invisible Touch by Genesis Phil Collins may have been prophetic, but we were at least similarly thoughtful in Part 2 of our 2025 Financial Forecast. […]
The U.S. Ship of State: “Steady as She Goes” Despite Rising Inflation Expectations
By Gary Aiken | December 12, 2024 With the U.S. election behind us and some policy uncertainty still ahead, economic data point to steady growth. Weekly jobless claims remain low, with initial claims holding steady around 220 thousand and continuing claims just below 2 million in the weeks following the election. These resilient figures persist […]
The First Cut Is the Deepest: How Long Can the Fed Rate Cutting Cycle Last?
By Gary Aiken | October 3, 2024 Cheryl Crow sang the title song for this month’s insight about a relationship gone wrong. In the lyrics, she desires to love again, but she knows it’s just not meant to be – the first cut is the deepest. Similarly, I think the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell […]
What Comes Next? Understanding the Fed’s Focus on Full Employment
By Gary Aiken | September 5, 2024 My family and I finally caught Hamilton on Broadway this weekend, ticking off a plan we had back in 2020 before the pandemic hit. The pandemic shutdown not only interrupted our lives but kicked off an unprecedented economic policy response. The Federal government approved trillions of dollars of […]