Sizing Up AI Risk
The S&P 500’s exposure to AI, from concentration and circular financing risk to power constraints and valuation stress, and where the opportunity still outweighs the risk.ow recent market volatility may create tax-loss harvesting opportunities that can help offset gains and support a more tax efficient portfolio.
Market Volatility Can Create Tax Opportunities
July saw single stock volatility rise to an extreme. In addition, it saw volatility in individual stocks widely dispersed and relatively uncorrelated to the S&P 500 Index. What does that mean? It means two things.
The Grind Continues: A Review of the First Half of 2026 for the Economy and Markets
Another day, another “A”. That was the motto in our household growing up. Despite the cheeky and easy-going feel of the phrase, getting to that result was anything but simple. Getting good grades, even for those who make it seem effortless, requires a lot of hard work behind the scenes. This sentiment is relayed by all those who achieve success from invention: “I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it” – Thomas Jefferson; to sport – “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard” – coach Tim Notke; and even to country music “It costs a lot of money to look this cheap” – Dolly Parton.
Excluding Food and Energy (Maybe Not Energy)
The April 2026 Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) reached 3.8%, the highest since May 2023. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index reached 3.3%, the highest since November 2023. While these readings are certainly lower than the inflation seen during the post-pandemic easy money flood, for Core PCE, they are higher than most readings going back to the first Gulf War.
Softness in Software
A few months ago, several private software companies defaulted on their debt covenants. This caused many lenders to software companies to reevaluate their borrowers’ ability to pay. When lending, there’s an adage – the return OF the principal is more important than the return ON the principal.
Energy, Inflation, and Liquidity: What Investors Need to Know Now
I write these monthly letters to you without the help of Artificial Intelligence. Of course, we use AI afterwards for several important purposes. Among other things, it generates possible headlines, social media optimizations, and it summarizes the text to ensure that the machine and I agree that the takeaways match my intent.
Fight or Flight? Inflation, Real Wages, and the 2026 Investment Outlook
In this March 2026 investment outlook, CIO Gary Aiken examines inflation, real wages, the Federal Reserve’s PCE Index, and the emotional response investors feel in uncertain times. He explores US versus international equities, the impact of the AI boom on productivity, bond market dynamics, and why disciplined portfolio rebalancing—not fear or euphoria—remains central to long-term investing.
Warren Buffett’s Legacy: Lessons from 60 Years of Success
The Legacy of Warren Buffett: As 2025 draws to a close, I’m dedicating this month’s insight to reflecting on Warren Buffett’s final year at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, ending a stunning track record of superior returns that may never be matched.
No Data, No Problem? How Markets Adapt When Economic Data Goes Dark
No Data, No Problem? By the time you read this, the government shutdown may be over. Or not. Politicians from both parties talking past each other have led to the delay of four weeks of official government data on employment, inflation, and other important economic statistics.
When Leading Indicators Fail to Lead: Why Traditional Recession Signals Aren’t Predicting Today’s Economy
By Gary Aiken | October 9, 2025 “Alternative Facts,” “Post-Truth,” and “Trust Crisis” are all popular buzzwords that attempt to describe American politics in the modern era of social media dominance. That device in your hand, where most Americans get their daily “news” from, may be more influential than you realize. The algorithms embedded in […]